We evaluate paleo‐, historical, and future sea‐level rise along the U.S. mid‐Atlantic coast. The rate of relative sea‐level rise in New Jersey decreased from 3.5 ± 1.0 mm/yr at 7.5-6.5 ka, to 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr at 5.5-4.5 ka to a minimum of 0.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr at 3.3-2.3 ka. Relative sea level rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 2.2 to 1.2 ka (750 Common Era [CE]) and 1.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 800 to 1800 ... read moreCE. Geological and tide‐gauge data show that sea‐level rise was more rapid throughout the region since the Industrial Revolution (19th century = 2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr; 20th century = 3.8 ± 0.2 mm/yr) There is a 95% probability that the 20th century rate of sea‐level rise was faster than it was in any century in the last 4.3 kyr. These records reflect global rise (∼1.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr since 1880 CE) and subsidence from glacio‐isostatic adjustment (∼1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr) at bedrock locations (e.g., New York City) At coastal plain locations, the rate of rise is 0.3-1.3 mm/yr higher due to groundwater withdrawal and compaction. We construct 21st century relative sea‐level rise scenarios including global, regional, and local processes. We project a 22 cm rise at bedrock locations by 2030 (central scenario; low‐ and high‐end scenarios range of 16-38 cm), 40 cm by 2050 (range 28-65 cm), and 96 cm by 2100 (range 66-168 cm), with coastal plain locations having higher rises (3, 5-6, and 10-12 cm higher, respectively) By 2050 CE in the central scenario, a storm with a 10 year recurrence interval will exceed all historic storms at Atlantic City.read less
Miller, K. G., R. E. Kopp, B. P. Horton, J. V. Browning, and A. C. Kemp (2013), A geological perspective on sea-level rise and its impacts along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, Earth's Future, 1, 3-18, doi:10.1002/2013EF000135.