Although the 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to hold global average temperature to 'well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels', projections of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise commonly focus on scenarios in which there is a high probability that warming exceeds 1.5 °C. Using a semi-empirical model, we proje... read morect GMSL changes between now and 2150 CE under a suite of temperature scenarios that satisfy the Paris Agreement temperature targets. The projected magnitude and rate of GMSL rise varies among these low emissions scenarios. Stabilizing temperature at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial reduces GMSL in 2150 CE by 17 cm (90% credible interval: 14-21 cm) and reduces peak rates of rise by 1.9 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 1.4-2.6 mm yr−1) Delaying the year of peak temperature has little long-term influence on GMSL, but does reduce the maximum rate of rise. Stabilizing at 2 °C in 2080 CE rather than 2030 CE reduces the peak rate by 2.7 mm yr−1 (90% credible interval: 2.0-4.0 mm yr−1)read less
Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Kopp, R.E., and Kemp, A.C., 2017. Global mean sea-level rise in a world agreed upon in Paris. Environmental Research Letters 12, 124010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9def.