Winners and Losers: An Analysis of Qatar's Economy Ten Months Into the GCC Rift of 2017.
Taylor, Theodore H.
- Submitted in partial fulfillment of the degree Masters of International Business at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Abstract: The GCC Rift of 2017 was one of the worst regional crises in the history of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The three main instigators, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United ArabEmirates, economically pressured Qatar to agree to thirteen demands, which were mostly ... read morecentered around terrorist financing and its relationship with Iran. The three GCC countries used isolation via blockades and embargoes to hurt five main areas of the Qatari economy. Examining each of those five areas illuminates which side was more successful in accomplishing their goals during the first ten months of the rift.When scoring the level of disruption to Qatar’s economic plans across the five areas, four categories (finance/banking, energy, trade and infrastructure) went to Qatar while one (aviation) belonged to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As a result, Qatar clearly survived and found that the rift was a “blessing in disguise”. With new trade partners in Iran and Turkey and an increased confidence in internal solutions, Qatar looks better positioned ten months into the rift, ready to impose its own economic desires domestically and internationally. The Gulf Cooperation Council also looks fragmented, and its existence as a unified economic body seems doubtful moving into the next few fiscal years.read less