Portfolio Decision Analysis to Support Energy Research and Development Resource Allocation.
United States aims to transform the energy sector to achieve greater energy independence
as well as to abate its contribution to anthropogenic climate change. However, to
achieve its goals, substantial research and development (R&D) is needed, and from an
administrative stand point, must make resource allocation decisions which are complex
and dynamic. This is due to multiple ... read morefactors including a finite budget, the inherent
risk of investing in emerging technologies, the multi-objective goals required to
satisfy a heterogeneous marketplace, and the constraints imposed by numerous external
drivers. Decision analysis is a well-recognized method for structuring and supporting
decisions that are confounded by such complexities. The goal of this study is to develop
and test a model to be used by the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and
Storage R&D program to demonstrate how portfolio decision analysis can support
R&D funding allocation to advance energy technology program areas toward their
goals. A multiattribute value model is developed to embody the values of decision makers
in order to evaluate alternative portfolio options. Mathematical optimization is used to
identify the configuration of funding allocations to the technology program areas that
maximize the value of the total budget, especially with respect to externally imposed
budget changes. The results demonstrate that, as opposed to equal distribution of a
budget change among technology program areas, explicitly funding the most
value-generating options results in greater expected research and development
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts University, 2015.
Submitted to the Dept. of Civil Engineering.
Advisor: Richard Vogel.
Committee: Stephen Levine, and Matthew Bates.
Keywords: Environmental engineering, and Operations research.read less