Modeling the Sensitivity of Total Phosphorus in an Urban Stream to Climate Variability.
Munson, Katherine.
2015
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Abstract: A study
was performed to investigate the sensitivity of river phosphorus loading to changes in
precipitation, temperature, and flow rate. This research performs sensitivity analyses
using elasticity principles similar to those employed by economists (i.e., price
elasticity of demand) to uncover climate-nutrient-loading relationships. Here, the
concept of elasticity is implemented in ... read morea water quality context to identify the
sensitivity of total phosphorus (dissolved and particulate) loading in an urban stream
to several climate variables using multivariate approaches. Previous analyses have used
single parameter elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between
nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but these methods cannot reflect the
complicated nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation,
temperature, and streamflow. Instead, the multivariate analysis presented in this study
relies on the combined interactions among precipitation, temperature, and streamflow to
successfully distinguish their individual impacts on nutrient loading. This study
presents field data results and develops models that can be used to estimate phosphorus
loads while determining the sensitivity of total phosphorus loading to changes in
climate variables. It was found that total phosphorus loading at Alewife Brook depends
significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow incidents, and flow rate.
These results were significant for the development of a nutrient loading model that
predicted a 3.6% to 7.4% increase in total phosphorus loading at Alewife Brook if small
increases in precipitation, temperature, flow rate, and combined sewer overflow
incidents occur. These results could be useful for developing models to better predict
water quality responses to climate
variability.
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts University, 2015.
Submitted to the Dept. of Civil Engineering.
Advisor: John Durant.
Committee: Richard Vogel, and Patrick Herron.
Keywords: Environmental engineering, Water resources management, and Statistics.read less - ID:
- q237j4320
- Component ID:
- tufts:21488
- To Cite:
- TARC Citation Guide EndNote
