The Optimal Strategic Use of Data in Small-scale Elections
Rosenfeld, Zach
2020
-
Political analysts often discuss the power of voter targeting and voter turnout operations. These “data strategies” become all-the-more crucial in smaller-scale elections where campaigns have fewer resources with which to engage voters. Many small-scale campaigns embrace tactics that scholars denote as ineffective. I ask: why? Is there a superior way to target and turnout voters? Can I model the ... read moreestimated impact of investing solely in more effective voter targeting tactics? Can I create this model utilizing the equivalent resources to those of an actual small- scale campaign? If so, can I assist in convincing small-scale campaigns that their money is best spent on more impactful tactics? Answers to these questions will significantly broaden the research on campaign targeting and turnout strategy and assist in closing the gap between what scholarly research suggests and what conventional campaigns implement.It is impossible to answers these questions in a general way—the fundamentals of every campaign are different. Over the course of this thesis, I attempt to explore these questions through the lens of a single small-scale election that occurred in 2017 in New Jersey’s 11th state senate district. Using previously conducted research, interviews, and self-made models, I report on what actually occurred on election night 2017 and then proceed to “replicate” the election, applying differing tactics and dispersions of resources than the actual campaign chose to use. I go on to compare my results to the actual outcome of the race and discuss which tactics worked better and why. Finally, I discuss the broader impact of my results and how they can be helpful to campaign officials and academic scholars alike.
Advisor: Professor Eitan Hershread less - ID:
- h128nt34z
- To Cite:
- TARC Citation Guide EndNote
- Usage:
- Detailed Rights
