The Spillover Effects of the Housing Market on Local Employment
Abstract: I investigate the impact of the housing dynamics on local employment. This can occur through at least two channels - the price channel and the quantity channel. I use changes in house prices to capture the first channel, and changes in housing supply to account for the second. To evaluate the two effects, I build an econometric model using a panel of commuting zone level employment, ... read morehousing price and building permit data from 1991 to 2015. I incorporate lagged housing variables in the model to allow that both housing effects could take time to play out fully, and the lagged dependent variable to account for partial adjustment in the labor market. To identify the causal effects, I use the housing supply elasticity and the national mortgage interest rate as instruments for the endogenous housing variables. I find evidence that 1) both price and quantity effects have significant impacts on employment changes; 2) the quantity effect is more persistent, widespread and economically significant than the price effect. Moreover, I exploit home refinancing data to show that the price effect primarily works through the collateral borrowing channel rather than the direct wealth channel. Finally, my case study indicates that the price and quantity effects account for 45% of the employment growth drop from 2007 to 2008. And the price effect is twice the quantity effect during this period.
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts University, 2018.
Submitted to the Dept. of Economics.
Advisors: Jeffrey Zabel, and Yannis Ioannides.
Committee: Jeffrey Zabel, Yannis Ioannides, and Gilbert Metcalf.
Keyword: Economics.read less