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Abstract: From Eastern Europe to South Africa to the Arab Spring, nonviolent
action has proven ca- pable of overthrowing autocratic regimes and bringing about
revolutionary political change. In fact, recent research suggests that nonviolent
movements are more than twice as effective in achieving their goals than violent ones. So
why do some political movemen... read morets neverthe- less believe it necessary to take up arms? Can
they be convinced otherwise? This dissertation examines why political movements that seek
to overthrow the state come to embrace a strategy of either armed insurgency or civil
resistance. I argue that char- acteristics of a movement's base of popular support--its
size, organization, and networked structure--influence the movement's perceptions of the
relative effectiveness of violent ver- sus nonviolent tactics and consequently shape its
strategic behavior. To test the theory, I employ a mixed-method research design.
Statistical analysis of a cross-national dataset of revolutionary movements allows me to
test competing theories and locate new empirical puzzles. Based on these quantitative
findings, I select four cases of revolutionary campaigns from Nepal for a more
fine-grained qualitative study. Drawing on six months of fieldwork in Nepal and India,
including archival research as well as over 60 interviews with ex-combatants, movement
leaders, and local experts, I use cross-case comparisons and within-case process-tracing
tests to further elucidate the theoretical mech- anisms, check for measurement error, and
search for alternative explanations not previously considered.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2015.
Submitted to the Dept. of Diplomacy, History, and Politics.
Advisor: Richard Shultz.
Committee: Zeynep Bulutgil, and Erica Chenoweth.
Keyword: International relations.read less
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