U.S. Missile Defense: Implications for Sino-U.S. Arms Race
Choi, Hyun-Jin
2005
- Submitted in partial fulfillment of the degree Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Abstract: In December 2002, President George W. Bush officially announced his plan to begin deployment of initial missile defense capabilities in 2004-2005. The deployment of missile defense is an essential element of the United States' broader efforts to meet its new ... read morestrategic challenges in the twenty first century. Once deployed, missile defense can secure the U.S. force projection capability while providing an additional safety net against growing threats from WMDs in the hands of hostile regimes and international terrorists. But, Chinese government has strongly criticized the U.S. missile defense plan. Beijing warned that U.S. missile defense could not only undermine strategic stability, but also lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles. A primary reason for Chinese criticism against missile defense is that even a limited system would undercut China's own nuclear deterrent vis-a-vis the United States. Currently, China has only about twenty liquid-fuel silo-based ICBMs that can reach the U.S. If U.S. would initiate a first strike, the Chinese assume that only a handful of Chinese ICBMs would survive. And the handful that would survive the first strike would be captured by missile defense systems. Many in China believe that such disadvantage would pose a serious menace to China's ability to employ its nuclear weapons to deter possible U.S. pressure and aggression in East Asia. Then, what would Sino-U.S. strategic relations look like under the fully-deployed missile defense, as well as how would it be affected by actual missile defense architectures employed? The thesis takes up this question and argues that prospects for Sino-U.S. arms race depend on the different types of missile defense architecture: limited, limited layered, and robust. And whether China enters into an arms race with the U.S. or not under the respective type of architecture is constrained by five variables: grand strategy in Chinese history; nuclear doctrine; military technology; economic resources; and China's commitment to arms control regimes.read less
- ID:
- 8c97m190d
- Component ID:
- tufts:UA015.012.DO.00077
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