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Abstract: This thesis analyzes three hypotheses of ways in which the use of cognitive heuristics could lead to suboptimal decision making in the National Football League (NFL) draft. In the first hypothesis, teams draft more players from schools with high-caliber players due to the availability heuristic. This bias is found and is shown to be detrimental to teams. The second hypothesis contends ... read morethat the availability heuristic will lead teams to overdraft from their local state. Analysis shows that between a fourth and a third of NFL teams draft local players too often, but this does not have any negative effect on performance. The final hypothesis argues that teams will use a mental representation of an NFL player when drafting, even if the mental representation is flawed. This hypothesis is confirmed for quarterbacks, where teams miss a key signal, but is found to be false for offensive skill players, who teams draft based on the correct cues. Prescriptive recommendations are outlined on how teams can avoid biased decision-making processes in the future.read less
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