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Abstract:
Environmental surprises are bound to occur. Surprise is a phenomenon relative to human
perception and is felt when events deviate from the expected or are entirely
unanticipated prior to their occurrence. Surprise is induced by uncertainty, complexity,
and chaos in environmental systems and exacerbated by anthropogenic attempts to gain
control over these systems. In my thesis, I ... read morereview the concept of surprise and its role
in ecosystem management and financial markets. In particular, I focus on the connection
between surprise and sustainability. I review the quantification of surprise and its
application to water resource management, while stressing the importance of integrating
non-quantifiable notions of surprise into decision-making for a more sustainable
approach to management. Lastly, I explore methods in which integrated adaptive
management and critical thinking embrace uncertainty by absorbing surprise impacts, and
I explain how improving societal coping mechanisms can reduce adverse impacts of
human-induced surprises.
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts
University, 2011.
Submitted to the Dept. of Civil
Engineering.
Advisor: Richard
Vogel.
Committee: Paul Kirshen, Shafiqul Islam, and
Nicholas Matalas.
Keyword: Water resources
management.read less
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