Assessing Arms Production in the Third Tier Thirty Years On.
Liang, Xiaodon L.
- Submitted in partial fulfillment of the degree Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Abstract: This paper examines data on the defense economies of 12 ‘Third-Tier’ states—countries with limited arms production capabilities—to assess how they adapted to a changing international environment over the past 30 years. Drawing on publicly available data, it prop... read moreoses multiple indirect indicators of the scale of military arms production in the sample states, including an original application of econometric time series analysis to proxy incorporation of foreign-source subcomponents in military production using exchange rate exposures. The paper demonstrates that states either exited the international arms market, adapted by embracing specialization, or transcended the Third Tier through commitment to long-term investment.read less