Citizen science data reveal correlations in the changes of phenology and abundance in Massachusetts Butterflies under climate change
Michielini, James P.
2019
- Organisms throughout the world are responding to climatic shifts in various ways. Range shifting and phenological responses to increased temperatures have been recorded across temperate regions. Lepidoptera as a taxon are uniquely subject to thermal changes and serve as a popular, diverse clade of organisms making them excellent to study the effects of climate change. Using citizen science ... read moremonitoring data from 1991 to 2017 from the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we examined species phenology and community composition. Using quantile regression, an underappreciated technique in the study of insect phenology, we revealed changes in the emergence and diapause timing of butterflies and significant differences between univoltine and multivoltine species. Measures of phenology were also compared to trends in abundance which were derived using the list length method. Multivoltine species not only extended their flight period but also increased in abundance relative to univoltine species, indicating that some species are likely adding another generation in the year due to the extended growing season. One southern species, the Zabulon Skipper Poanes zabulon, appears to be regularly adding a generation and subsequently greatly increasing in abundance as the state becomes more thermally suitable. Northern species; however, have generally experienced population declines over the time period, corroborating patterns of range shifts that have been observed in other systems. The utility of citizen science data is enhanced by innovative statistical techniques which can reveal significant patterns in phenology and abundance with the capacity to inform both science and conservation.read less
- ID:
- 6q183013f
- To Cite:
- TARC Citation Guide EndNote
