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Abstract: Future climate change subjects the wine grape industry in the
Pacific Northwest United States to considerable risk. I measure the impact of climate
change on wine grape revenues in this region by looking at the historical effects of random
fluctuations in weather on annual wine revenues using fine-scale (2.5 mile x 2.5 mile grid
cells) daily data on temperature and precipitation from... read more1995-2005. The impact of future
climate change on wine grape revenues is then estimated using county-level climate
projections applied to my statistical estimates of the impact of weather on revenues.
Projected impacts are supplemented by a dynamic forecasting analysis. Results show that by
2030 the premier growing regions in Northern California will face declining wine grape
revenues. By 2050 and 2100, wine grape revenues in all growing regions are expected to
fall, with many regions experiencing losses that exceed 20% of historical wine grape
values.
Thesis (M.S.)--Tufts University, 2011.
Submitted to the Dept. of Economics.
Advisor: Gilbert Metcalf.
Committee: Jeffrey Zabel, Frank Ackerman, and Elizabeth
Stanton.
Keywords: Economics, Climate Change, and Economics,
Agricultural.read less
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