Two Rebel Roads to Power: Explaining Variation in the Transition from Genocidal Violence to Rebel Governance in Contemporary Rwanda and Burundi.
Twagiramungu, Noel.
2014
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Abstract: Rwanda and Burundi are often considered twin countries, exhibiting
almost identical historical and linguistic heritage, cultural norms and practices, and
social and political structures. Equally landlocked, poor in natural resources, and
aid-dependent, the two former Belgian colonial territories have since the 1990s emerged
from comparable instances of genocidal violence and rebel-led ... read moretransitions. Yet these
transitions occurred in radically different ways. The Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic
Front (RPF) came to power through a military victory and established a strong,
donor-darling state with an exaggerated presence in the international arena. Burundi's
Hutu-dominated Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces de Défense de la
Démocratie, (CNDD-FDD) forced a Tutsi-controlled army to negotiate a power-sharing
arrangement and now presides over a divided government with little influence beyond its
national borders. This dissertation argues that these divergent transitions are not simply
an outcome of contingent and idiosyncratic factors such as war, genocide, conflict endgame,
external influences or individual leaders. Instead, the differences are better understood
as the continuation of longstanding political patterns. The argument rests on four
empirical findings. First, the coming into being of Rwanda and Burundi was the result of
complex processual developments of political negotiation rather than instantaneous
structures created whole each under one founding father. Nevertheless, the origins of the
current patterns of governance can be traced back to the early political foundations of
each state. One of Rwanda's foundational monarchs, Ruganzu Ndori, came to power by force in
a time of extreme turmoil; he introduced two innovative political tools -- a strong army
and a clientele system known as ubuhake -- which allowed the central court increasing
control over its expanding territory. Burundi's founder, Ntare Rushatsi, rose to prominence
in peacetime, by gradually extending his influence over complex webs of power-holders; the
resultant royal structures were based on a delicate web of relations among several
semi-autonomous princes. As Ruganzu's successors consolidated power, by the mid-eighteenth
century Rwanda came to be a highly militarized and fairly centralized kingdom. By contrast,
Burundi retained its features of a confederation among regional authorities. Second, the
foundational political styles responded to the challenges of their times, adapting to
shifting dynamics; neither colonial domination nor the post-independence rise of military
rule, democratization processes or rebel governance reversed the age-old trends. Third,
this dissertation explains why, upon assuming power, new leaders tend to reproduce the same
governance systems they once vowed to eradicate. I argue that political entrepreneurs,
including rebellions, find themselves obliged to preserve institutions and practices that
resonate most with the society as a whole. They do so both in their individual efforts to
minimize the risks of uncertainties (as instrumental-rational theorists may correctly
suggest), and because, having been socialized into these norms and practices, they have had
to internalize and work within them to achieve success. Fourth, the prevailing patterns of
governance--centralization in Rwanda, fragmentation in Burundi--, while self-reinforcing,
are neither linear nor deterministic. The analysis examines five pairs of variables whose
interactions and trade-offs shape each society's responses to ever-changing challenges and
opportunities: relations between past and present; center and periphery; agency and
structure; elites and multiple lay groupings; internal and external factors. Put together,
the findings suggest that good understanding of the core norms and practices likely to
shape the boundaries of choices and margins of maneuver available to individual and
institutional actors is key for designing balanced, well-informed, context-sensitive and
change-oriented policies.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2014.
Submitted to the Dept. of Diplomacy, History, and Politics.
Advisors: Peter Uvin, and Eileen Babbitt.
Committee: Jens Meierhenrich.
Keywords: International relations, Peace studies, and Sub Saharan Africa studies.read less - ID:
- 2801pt24r
- Component ID:
- tufts:21819
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- TARC Citation Guide EndNote