Is Winter Weather Worse? A Frequency Analysis of Extreme Snowfall in the Northeastern United States
Hudson, Justin R.
2019
- Abstract: As human driven climate change modifies long existing weather patterns, understanding changes in winter weather which can threaten human lives and infrastructure grows increasingly important. Many residents in the Northeastern United States believe that in recent years winter weather has gotten worse, with increased total snowfall and more frequent large winter storms. This study ... read moreapplies a Poisson rate frequency analysis method to multi-decadal snowfall data from coastal locations between Virginia and Maine to test the validity of these beliefs by verifying and quantifying statistically significant changes in snowfall. This analysis revealed major shifts in snow patterns since the 1990s such as a 10+ inch increase in average annual cumulative snowfall for major coastal cities in the northeastern United States, and in Boston, MA what was a once in a century storm now occurs every 4–5 years. Arctic amplification is a potential driver of this change and means this increase in winter activity may worsen in the coming years. The possible roles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Amplification, and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are explored as physically-plausible driving mechanisms for the observed spatio-temporal changes in snowfall.read less
- ID:
- 1c18dv406
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- TARC Citation Guide EndNote
