Combining Epidemiological Models with Fate and Transport Models for Waterborne Pathogens.
Tanimoto, Yukinobu.
2014
- Abstract: Billions of people around the world today lack safe access to clean water sources and improved sanitation facilities. Many of these people also meet their daily water needs from surface waters that are susceptible to open defecation; thus, there is a great risk that these waters may be contaminated by waterborne pathogens. We have combined two well-established models: a pathogen fate and ... read moretransport model and an epidemic model to predict the outbreak and progression of diseases caused by waterborne pathogens along an urbanized river channel. The fate and transport model predicts the transport and evolution of the pathogen in the river system, and the epidemic model predicts the outbreak of the disease once populations along the river have ingested that contaminated water. The communities then act as pseudo-incubators for the disease, effectively increasing the amount of pathogen in the river channel. A combined model provides a more holistic view of the waterborne infectious disease paradigm through the inclusion of a river and a human population component. We provide a case study for this model by examining the Cholera outbreak in Haiti in October 2010, and calibrating the model to the Artibonite River that runs through Haiti. This case study has provided confirmation of our model results to a certain extent. The model can serve as a decision support system to determine the best management practice and public health interventions, and also may be used to in guiding response to bioterrorism attacks. If used effectively, these hydroepidemiological models will lead to improved access to safe water and sanitation worldwide by serving as a tool to educate and guide decision making for water resource engineers and public health practitioners alike.read less
- ID:
- 0r967g13f
- Component ID:
- tufts:sd.0000057
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